TUESDAY MARCH 31-2009
I’m looking for a clue as to the market direction / sentiment–I think it might go into a tight trading range–
Trading record—93% kill ratio
DXD is almost at 56 = 200 day==On MAR 21st post, go back to March 21st—I never would have thought DXD would have made it to it’s 200 day–That’s a great signal for telling you when DIA will top out–
WHR–I hope this stock is out of steam—I’ll try a short at RSI 69–I see a lot of companies at RSI 65-66–And they are making me wait for RSI 69–So, If anyone says the market topped–It probably will at least trade sideways to higher–Until all these loose end RSI 65 and 66′s become RSI 69′s
GS, stocks like CME ( winner) JPM- ( winner) -GS ( winner, what do you think?)–shorting them might scare other investors–but I do my homework–I have no fear—
Watch video: No Woman No cry!
Systematic risk, also called market risk, aggregate risk or undiversifiable risk. It means the risk associated with aggregate market returns. Systematic risk is a risk of security that cannot be reduced through diversification. It should not be confused with systemic risk.
Systemic risk is the risk that the entire financial system will collapse as a result of some catastrophic.
Systematic risk is overall market risk as applied to a particular stock. It cannot be diversified against in a portfolio. It is measured by the beta coefficient. Beta is a measurement of 1.
Suppose the stock market were to decline by 10%; what would be the impact on your portfolio?
How a stock market decline would affect the value of each security in the portfolio?
In general, we use the S&P stock index as a benchmark. If one of the investments in your portfolio were an S&P index fund, obviously the impact on this investment would be simply a 10% decline. In finance, we use statistical measure of equity portfolio risk which is called Beta.
Beta is the expected change in value of a stock or portfolio relative to the change in value of the market. If a portfolio has a beta of 1, your investment loss should have the same decline as of the market. While a portfolio with a beta of 0.9 would be expected to decline only 9% if the market declined 10%.
Suppose an investor is purchasing a stock with a beta of 1.5 relative to the S&P 500. This stock should have 1.5 times the volatility of the S&P 500. If the S&P were to increase by 10%, the stock should increase by 15%.
There are a set of common dimensions of risk: equity market changes, sensitivity to interest rate changes, currency changes, energy prices, credit spreads, foreign market changes and so on.
In general, there are four types of financial market risks:
1/ Interest Rate Risk 2/ Exchange Rate Risk 3/ Equity Risk 4/ Commodity Risk
Risk is measured by the the standard deviation of unexpected outcomes or sigma, called volatility.
Losses can occur through a combination of two factors: the volatility in the underlying financial variable
and the exposure to to the source of risk.
Measurements of exposure to movements in underlying risk . In the fixed-income markets, exposure to
movements in interest rates is called duration. In the stock market, this exposure is called systematic risk,
In derivatives markets, the exposure to movements in the value of the underlying asset is called delta.
EXP–XLB holding–When building stocks start topping out usually so do the IYR and Housing stocks
UPDATE____TODAY WAS THE TOP–IT’S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE–I’M about 80% certain–
or the market is sending the banks to the 200 days–which are 25% higher
SOHU–looks like the monthly low 38.25 is in–
UPS 100 day is 48 ish–I’d use a tight stop loss–IYT sector