hello zstock

MTH missed earnings

Hello zstock
how to play mth tomorrow?
i got some august put, sell at open or hold to any price target?
thanks

QID held the line at RSI 25---that's HUGE. This could be the beginning of a trend reversal--4 to 5 days out

AGN showing weakness---when botox gives so does eyecare---ACL

Tuesday's are usually a down day, it would be nice to close down 1% for once.

KSU is trying to get to 21.5 feb high--that's where I'll add to my puts, it has a $1.50 average drop--past 5 months

Z,

UPS approaching target price.

best
cg

UPS short at 53.95 Looks good, 54.12 is good too

GENZ, has 2 short sell signals for overnight--it's at the bb middle band--it's earnings were so bad, it should have gone to a new yearly low 49-45

TSCO never did make it to 51--I had winning puts after all--too bad I closed them out 3 days ago

MTH AUG 22.5 put 1.80 filled (1)--this is lose half or win big earnings play--I think MTH will miss--but that might not matter to the market and MTH will go to new yearly high, above 23.5

Z, what is the exit for TYP

TYP, long term exit is 19--dow around 8300

http://tenyeartrader.blogspot.com/

my Monday morning comments

iS that possible you can start charging me from august 1st if i become member now?
please send me 2-3 days alerts via email since i work all day and chek my email every 2 hrs. as trial base. i known u from beanie board from long time
i am singhthetrader on twiteer.
then i'll sign up on august 1st for your sevie.
i promise
thnx
singh
MY EMAIL IS edit: from Z!--( i have it, Z!)

MTH reports Monday ah--they will miss---short it

Traders on the International Monetary Market doubled the value of their net short term position to $16.6 billion in the week to July 21.

Such a quick buildup in bets against the dollar may mean the market is vulnerable to bouts of profit taking.

z!

RSI on CMG is 82-83. think it's looking good for a downward direction? love to hear your opinion.

I only see rsi 69 cmg--if you do get rsi 80 on anything short it--

z!

are you still all in TWM CALLS? OR STOPPED OUT?

member, btw.

TWM dropped below that 35 cent = 1% threshold--Once a 2x etf drops that low--the calls don't recover--
--it's now a trash financial vehicle as far as going long on, ( puts are ok, but calls are trashed out --as option trading is concerned---
I'm switching all of my TWM calls into IWM sept 59 puts---
I'm looking for a IWM 50 exit--

Z,

Please keep posted on your exit of your TWM calls.

Thanks,
member cg

GOOG can't make $700 anymore because it's growth rate slowed from 50% down to 20%--
I imagine $465, is where Goog starts pulling back--$65 is a great place to buy a SEPT 400 put--3.00, possible woot! 20.00, this market ever pulls back

Hi Zstock-

I made a decent profit using ISRG straddles. I think straddles are the best way to play earnings, especially on stocks with huge short interest. I purchased ISRG Aug 140 put and 200 call options (equal amount of money in both). The 200 call options went up 1000%

Straddles work very well if there is at least 10% move on earnings and the volatility is less than 60 prior to earnings announcement.

Here are some potential earnings straddle play (put same amount of money on 10% OTM calls and puts)-

TUE AH (after hours): BWLD (Target 45 or 30, Strategy: Aug 40 calls and Aug 35 puts)

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=bwld

WED PM (pre-market): DIN (Target 25 or 35) , X (Target 35 or 45)

WED AH: GMCR (60 or 75)

THU AH: FSLR (140 or 220)

On SOHU, I purchased Aug 55 put and Aug 70 call. SOHU can either go to 50 or 70. I personally think it will go to 50

GLTA

BWLD, it's at rsi 70 going into earnings--I doubt it will get past 39--even beating the street---6% limited upside, sort of hurts the straddle
SOHU- that's going to be a big move--I think it's a much safer straddle--than BWLD
FSLR i'll have to take your word--I don't know how the AUG strikes will behave--should be delta 20's, but it's very un-predictable
I like your strike choices---A1 choices!

LVS looks like a good long play (IHS pattern). PCX and STRA are also worth looking at as earnings play.

GL

uh oh--I have short recommendations on LVS, maybe I'm whacked

It is due for a pullback before it can go any higher IMHO.

LVS--I'd try a short on WED--if it's ( probably) higher than today's 11.5

here's how GS makes their money
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/business/25trading.html?_r=2&ref=business
on a 100 share order, they can make $2 bucks off you--

SOHU if you go to yahoo analysts site
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=sohu
why did they make 4.06 on rev's of 429 m
and this year on 20% more rev's (511m)
the eps dropped to 3.76---
see --they are bringing in gobs of money, but it's not translating into gobs of profits--it's translating into less profits---they are throwing too many million dollar parties, probably--

SOHU--If I HAD to say something---I'd have to say SOHU will disappoint on earnings--they are making gobs of money--but either --they aren't controlling costs--or their margins are just terrible

SOHU about earnings --back in dec, even though they bt street 25%--they didn't move anywhere--on earnings, SOHU could move to 69 or down to 50
target price on the web is $69
http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Deutsche+Bank+Upgrades+Sohu.com+(SOHU)+to+Hold%3B+Raises+Price+Target+%26+2009+Estimates/4809971.html

ZZZ...one more AVD....came up on your chart settings.....

AVD--I have lower low on Tuesday and then go long on that lower low--might be going below 9.12

URE--I can straight out sell the sept 3 call 1.10 ( -1) and ure at 3.60--buy it back 0.70---+40%--i'll probably try 1 contract---and call it paper trading---

ZZZ...NTLS on the overnight chart.......Thoughts?

just back from yahoo analysts estimates site---it's a go ! Long NTLS--never did do a lower than 15.7--so you might get a 15.5 entry--it's still a 16.4 easy exit

I spotted this from your chart teachings...let's see...thanks....

Z: the opposite of SRS is URE. I posted that at my site.

FSLR: agree. I thought $210 last week could be in play for this week.

If you are going to own FSLR, you need to own STP. STP closed above resistance Friday and poised to move higher just like FSLR. If FSLR sees $210 this week, STP will see $30.

I'm straight up buying the SEPT 190 calls--If I can get in at 4.00-6.00 at 8.00 now---woot! 20.00 at fslr 200

This market has changed. Remember I used to own STP, but not any more.

Z- thanks for having me come over to take a look at XOM and FSLR! After that great video, charts seem like a bore. LOVED IT!!!

Okay, back to work here and have added them to my watch list for prep on Sunday night and will probably trade them both. I actually am a hybrid trader myself (mostly TA and some fundies,) and always check for EPS changes, but only in the current quarters, rather than your method of looking out ahead. Thanks for teaching me a new trick! :-)

Keirsten, You really ought to join Zee's Members Only site and get more detail on EPS and other TA methods. The price is very reasonable. I've ben a member since December 2008 and the "ride" has been great. No regrets!!

+1 and +1

????

I gave your disqus score a +1 you now have 2 points, instead of 1 point

Gary L's qqqq cjhart
http://nctrader.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/2009-07-25-qqqq.png

TDW--if it does get to $52 july 29 earnings, it's a short--on a revenue basis TDW should be in the 60's, but it's eps is of reduced circumstances---that keeps it under it's 200 day weekly 52

CCL--on a revenue basis CCL should be much higher than May high of 29.7, on EPS though--it's priced at the top, now.
same story with RCL

UPS, eps has been lowered past 90 days--so that 57 may high-- isn't reachable--just getting back to my basics--I'd have to say UPS is a short at 54-55

$VIX--little factoid--the most the VIX goes before retesting the middle bb band is 11 days--FRI was day 10, and in order for VIX to meet the 11th day deadline--it will have to jump 12% on Monday up to 25.8--seems sort of doubtful

PNC I have good vibes about PNC at 33 long--last year 7 b sales this year 14 b sales

Thanks...PNC looks ripe @ 33.....sell @ 38 range?.......You do know how to find them.....Best money I spend every month is my membership fee......

PS...I am not pimping.....just honest....

I hate that falling-knife look on PNC, but I like the volume the last 3 days. Maybe buy the possible knife on a dip and add semi-maximum pain stops.

Here's a traderbean GDX chart
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_7TWviN4PHYg/SmsuehSENrI/AAAAAAAABV8/NvA3gBVyW2E/s1600-h/AnyC00413gdx.BMP
***
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/

GMCR ER thoughts?
--sickly overpriced here...yet it does have 34% short and with the $SBUX reaction i think it might get some decent bearish panic covering before the report on thurs.

My 8 year old son saw that wedding video. He wants his wedding to be like that.
ohhhh ... nooooo ... his Momma (my wife) may have a problem with that decstion BUT she'll get-over-it. : )

check this out http://fade-me.blogspot.com/2009/07/no-class-and-class.html