MTH AUG 22.5 put 1.80 filled (1)--this is lose half or win big earnings play--I think MTH will miss--but that might not matter to the market and MTH will go to new yearly high, above 23.5
iS that possible you can start charging me from august 1st if i become member now? please send me 2-3 days alerts via email since i work all day and chek my email every 2 hrs. as trial base. i known u from beanie board from long time i am singhthetrader on twiteer. then i'll sign up on august 1st for your sevie. i promise thnx singh MY EMAIL IS edit: from Z!--( i have it, Z!)
TWM dropped below that 35 cent = 1% threshold--Once a 2x etf drops that low--the calls don't recover-- --it's now a trash financial vehicle as far as going long on, ( puts are ok, but calls are trashed out --as option trading is concerned--- I'm switching all of my TWM calls into IWM sept 59 puts--- I'm looking for a IWM 50 exit--
GOOG can't make $700 anymore because it's growth rate slowed from 50% down to 20%-- I imagine $465, is where Goog starts pulling back--$65 is a great place to buy a SEPT 400 put--3.00, possible woot! 20.00, this market ever pulls back
I made a decent profit using ISRG straddles. I think straddles are the best way to play earnings, especially on stocks with huge short interest. I purchased ISRG Aug 140 put and 200 call options (equal amount of money in both). The 200 call options went up 1000%
Straddles work very well if there is at least 10% move on earnings and the volatility is less than 60 prior to earnings announcement.
Here are some potential earnings straddle play (put same amount of money on 10% OTM calls and puts)-
TUE AH (after hours): BWLD (Target 45 or 30, Strategy: Aug 40 calls and Aug 35 puts)
BWLD, it's at rsi 70 going into earnings--I doubt it will get past 39--even beating the street---6% limited upside, sort of hurts the straddle SOHU- that's going to be a big move--I think it's a much safer straddle--than BWLD FSLR i'll have to take your word--I don't know how the AUG strikes will behave--should be delta 20's, but it's very un-predictable I like your strike choices---A1 choices!
SOHU if you go to yahoo analysts site http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=sohu why did they make 4.06 on rev's of 429 m and this year on 20% more rev's (511m) the eps dropped to 3.76--- see --they are bringing in gobs of money, but it's not translating into gobs of profits--it's translating into less profits---they are throwing too many million dollar parties, probably--
SOHU--If I HAD to say something---I'd have to say SOHU will disappoint on earnings--they are making gobs of money--but either --they aren't controlling costs--or their margins are just terrible
SOHU about earnings --back in dec, even though they bt street 25%--they didn't move anywhere--on earnings, SOHU could move to 69 or down to 50 target price on the web is $69 http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Deutsche+...
URE--I can straight out sell the sept 3 call 1.10 ( -1) and ure at 3.60--buy it back 0.70---+40%--i'll probably try 1 contract---and call it paper trading---
just back from yahoo analysts estimates site---it's a go ! Long NTLS--never did do a lower than 15.7--so you might get a 15.5 entry--it's still a 16.4 easy exit
Z: the opposite of SRS is URE. I posted that at my site.
FSLR: agree. I thought $210 last week could be in play for this week.
If you are going to own FSLR, you need to own STP. STP closed above resistance Friday and poised to move higher just like FSLR. If FSLR sees $210 this week, STP will see $30.
Z- thanks for having me come over to take a look at XOM and FSLR! After that great video, charts seem like a bore. LOVED IT!!!
Okay, back to work here and have added them to my watch list for prep on Sunday night and will probably trade them both. I actually am a hybrid trader myself (mostly TA and some fundies,) and always check for EPS changes, but only in the current quarters, rather than your method of looking out ahead. Thanks for teaching me a new trick! :-)
Keirsten, You really ought to join Zee's Members Only site and get more detail on EPS and other TA methods. The price is very reasonable. I've ben a member since December 2008 and the "ride" has been great. No regrets!!
TDW--if it does get to $52 july 29 earnings, it's a short--on a revenue basis TDW should be in the 60's, but it's eps is of reduced circumstances---that keeps it under it's 200 day weekly 52
$VIX--little factoid--the most the VIX goes before retesting the middle bb band is 11 days--FRI was day 10, and in order for VIX to meet the 11th day deadline--it will have to jump 12% on Monday up to 25.8--seems sort of doubtful
GMCR ER thoughts? --sickly overpriced here...yet it does have 34% short and with the $SBUX reaction i think it might get some decent bearish panic covering before the report on thurs.
My 8 year old son saw that wedding video. He wants his wedding to be like that. ohhhh ... nooooo ... his Momma (my wife) may have a problem with that decstion BUT she'll get-over-it. : )
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how to play mth tomorrow?
i got some august put, sell at open or hold to any price target?
thanks
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UPS approaching target price.
best
cg
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my Monday morning comments
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please send me 2-3 days alerts via email since i work all day and chek my email every 2 hrs. as trial base. i known u from beanie board from long time
i am singhthetrader on twiteer.
then i'll sign up on august 1st for your sevie.
i promise
thnx
singh
MY EMAIL IS edit: from Z!--( i have it, Z!)
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Such a quick buildup in bets against the dollar may mean the market is vulnerable to bouts of profit taking.
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RSI on CMG is 82-83. think it's looking good for a downward direction? love to hear your opinion.
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are you still all in TWM CALLS? OR STOPPED OUT?
member, btw.
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--it's now a trash financial vehicle as far as going long on, ( puts are ok, but calls are trashed out --as option trading is concerned---
I'm switching all of my TWM calls into IWM sept 59 puts---
I'm looking for a IWM 50 exit--
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Please keep posted on your exit of your TWM calls.
Thanks,
member cg
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I imagine $465, is where Goog starts pulling back--$65 is a great place to buy a SEPT 400 put--3.00, possible woot! 20.00, this market ever pulls back
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I made a decent profit using ISRG straddles. I think straddles are the best way to play earnings, especially on stocks with huge short interest. I purchased ISRG Aug 140 put and 200 call options (equal amount of money in both). The 200 call options went up 1000%
Straddles work very well if there is at least 10% move on earnings and the volatility is less than 60 prior to earnings announcement.
Here are some potential earnings straddle play (put same amount of money on 10% OTM calls and puts)-
TUE AH (after hours): BWLD (Target 45 or 30, Strategy: Aug 40 calls and Aug 35 puts)
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=bwld
WED PM (pre-market): DIN (Target 25 or 35) , X (Target 35 or 45)
WED AH: GMCR (60 or 75)
THU AH: FSLR (140 or 220)
On SOHU, I purchased Aug 55 put and Aug 70 call. SOHU can either go to 50 or 70. I personally think it will go to 50
GLTA
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SOHU- that's going to be a big move--I think it's a much safer straddle--than BWLD
FSLR i'll have to take your word--I don't know how the AUG strikes will behave--should be delta 20's, but it's very un-predictable
I like your strike choices---A1 choices!
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GL
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/business/25tr...
on a 100 share order, they can make $2 bucks off you--
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=sohu
why did they make 4.06 on rev's of 429 m
and this year on 20% more rev's (511m)
the eps dropped to 3.76---
see --they are bringing in gobs of money, but it's not translating into gobs of profits--it's translating into less profits---they are throwing too many million dollar parties, probably--
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target price on the web is $69
http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Deutsche+...
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FSLR: agree. I thought $210 last week could be in play for this week.
If you are going to own FSLR, you need to own STP. STP closed above resistance Friday and poised to move higher just like FSLR. If FSLR sees $210 this week, STP will see $30.
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Okay, back to work here and have added them to my watch list for prep on Sunday night and will probably trade them both. I actually am a hybrid trader myself (mostly TA and some fundies,) and always check for EPS changes, but only in the current quarters, rather than your method of looking out ahead. Thanks for teaching me a new trick! :-)
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http://nctrader.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/200...
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same story with RCL
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PS...I am not pimping.....just honest....
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_7TWviN4PHYg/SmsuehSEN...
***
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
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--sickly overpriced here...yet it does have 34% short and with the $SBUX reaction i think it might get some decent bearish panic covering before the report on thurs.
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ohhhh ... nooooo ... his Momma (my wife) may have a problem with that decstion BUT she'll get-over-it. : )
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