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NEM,RTH, PCAR earnings play wins–
Author:
• Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

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VIX–I was bored, really bored–and then I came up with this NUT!

NEM, the last –or one time–the gold stocks rallied really hard like 5 or 6% up in one day–they crashed the other sectors / market—HUGE–on concerns of something or other-( CPE? / probably)–I’m very bad at remembering daily headlines—anyway–this same set-up is occuring–and here’s how I hope it times itself

RTH–if it pushes 2% higher to 84, it’s possible–then the indexes might get a 2% push–DIA 91.3 + 2% = 93.1
I doubt this will happen
So I’m shorting RTH right here in the 82 range–
I’ll worry about 84 if it gets here–
use the SEPT 90 puts

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Category: Gold stocks, retail sector
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  • DIS earnings is tanking the whole market in AH
  • neoken
    FSLR drops to 168 AH...

    First Solar: Uncertain Solar Demand Is Emerging In Germany
  • FSLR trades in China--I think?
  • FSLR 191 so far
  • TenYear
    FSLR...oh yeah, nice beat.
  • Hopefully today was a blow off top, and the market goes down for a few days to weeks
  • Hi Z,

    Did a straddle on FSLR (Sep 200 call and Sep 150 put). August options were very expensive.Looking good so far AH ($190 now).

    GL
  • FSLR Sept 160 call filled 25.2--I kept it secret---no puts--just eating my own cooking--yahoo finance said FSLR up, so I went up
  • I have XLE and ABX calls ahead of 28% inflation report CPE fri pre-market--( 2.4%, and I think you have to multiply by 12)
  • FSLR SEPT 160
    calls will either be 8-12 after earnings or go to 55.00
  • agree on ENER long 16 calls
  • TenYear
    Keep an eye on ENER. If FSLR explodes up AH then ENER could run to $18.32.
  • TenYear
    Hopefully you all got in on my HIG and GE

    I think GE can get to $14 and even $16 within a month if not weeks.

    GE upgraded to buy at goldman today.

    LNC resistance at $20.88 and $22

    UNG, could be the start of another $2 move. So there is another $1.24 to be had if correct.
  • srains99
    I bought more DXD @ 39.70 and a few FAZ calls.
  • on these 2X etfs--its better to short the opposite guy, than to go long on any of them--mathematically it gives you an extra 2 to 3% edge
  • TSPT fda soon . Dendreon is a shining example for the potential of biotech stocks to soar even before receiving FDA approval. All in all with over a quarter of the nation’s population suffering from some form of insomnia Transcept is one to watch
  • sorry for going against u but i also grabbed 160 PUT on 180 CALLS on FSLR just for hedge
  • TM, the revenue estimates for 2010 is 40% higher than last years 117 high
  • Reza
    z
    what do u think about TZA, FAZ, SRS as of now
  • Todays gap up changed the overnight charts to a little down on the indexes on Friday to a higher high on Monday--or today is the top period.
    Or the more likely scenario, this is a blow off top, and the market starts going down for a few weeks
  • Reza
    GDP report tomorrow, any thoughts
  • GDP, market could react either way--it's negative, but not as negative as last month
  • PSA 2 year weekly 200 day is 74--PSA never bounces off that line--It goes $5 above it, or $5 below it--so I guess PSA either plays the 200 line this time or it's headed to 79, which is $5 above the 200 line
  • SM has suck puts--so I sold AUG 20 CALLS 4.15 filled (-2) position SM at 24.08
  • AAPL--long term short SEP 150 put--filled 2.62---I'm looking for a lower bb band exit 140
  • looks like las vegas is back--new yearly high on WYNN
  • I'll be taking small short sell positions in KSU,ALEX,SM,RTH,CAT
  • RTH is getting close to the 84 stop--I'm shorting something retail, ahead of GDP and CPE report--I'll take a small position
  • HPQ rsi 80, wow
  • Pre-market news
    Strength among insurers follows solid quarterly earnings from Hartford (HIG 16.96, +2.00), Lincoln National (LNC 19.82, +1.77), and Aflac (AFL 37.91, +2.46).
  • Is it just me? Am I the only one that gets it---
    When I read the blue part on the VIX chart--I start laughing everytime.
    I had so many underwater puts 5 days ago---Talk about break-even, oh what a relief it is!
  • TM at yahoo--all you need to look at besides all that red---is the 90 days ago columns, to determine if TM is up or down on earnings
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=tm
  • TM reports AUG4 2 am---the market will SINK IT--go back down to $50 where you belong TM
    http://www.earnings.com/company.asp?client=cb&ticker=tm
  • RYL is way down in AH
  • TenYear
    I am trying to figure out why the DOW is not down 200+ today.

    Shanghai got a 5%+ haircut.
    Oil getting slaughtered.
    Dollar popping
    Vix popping
    Terrible bond auctions
    Unemployment to surpass 10%
    am I missing anything here....
  • Nergo
    China down 5% BUT DAX up 1.7% today.
  • FRI last day of the month and GDP report--there's your +200 down
  • Caldacan
    Z are you still holding calls on FSLR? I am thinking about selling a PUT spread and taking advantage of the vol crush.
  • I think you better add a put-SEPT ( $300 strike)--FSLR--always good to have a little insurance--FSLR's sept strikes have really been moving!
  • There's too many commodity stocks reporting tomorrow
  • DUG i have possible higher high on Thursday signals on the overnights
  • Core CPE on friday is 2.4% estimate--that's huge for gold stocks
  • If you see FXE in the mid to low 138's, there's going to be a monster rally in gold stocks
  • Tenyear UNG has that disconnect again--11.9 is really $10 this time
  • TenYear
    the only thing that works with UNG is buying it when dips below the lower bollinger on the 60 min. I can usually get 30 to 60 cents/share doing that. Today was one example. Otherwise this is just one to put into the IRA and hold forever.
    If you get it below the bollinger on the daily, well, thats a gift and you can get $1-$2/share. That happens about once a month.
  • UNG I'm not going to get fooled again-By the ( Vix component of UNG) -If I see 11.9, I'll wait for 10.9
  • TM earnings thoughts for this time around?

    http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/05/toyota-motors-early-entry-to-one-of.html

    I am "leaning" towards the same as last Q....
    (add me to ur twitter, if you want, easier/faster)
  • Hey Eric, I went to the wrong site! it's me --not you!
  • AUY---i'll use the triple bottom 8.22 to go long all gold stocks--you should see AUY on the "member's only" overnight charts---
    That's why you won't be seeing AUY going below 8.22
  • Tazman
    ZZZ....AVD....put $400 in account today......thank's for the advice......my membership fee paid for some time......


    Did not go NTLS yet....can you review?
  • NTLS is right there at rsi 30.4--that's rsi do or die time--looks like it's trading off the MArch lows
  • rose2797
    Z, I did buy qid today. I am in DUG also, bought it 2 days ago
  • I closed out my OXY puts because its right at the bb mid band which makes it perfectly 50/50 --for tomorrow--up or down OXY tomorrow --have equal weight.
    OXY at a crossroads, could go either way tomorrow-
  • XOM is not at 68, before earnings (thurs pre-market) --favors XOM miss
  • This qqqq is really bugging me--I said it would only have 1% moves next 4 to 5 days---that was 4 days ago--
    Maybe I should short it, today
  • TenYear
    I wonder if Asia sells off again tonight
  • srains99
    Hi Z,

    Been a long time. I held TGB/SOL and a few other long positions until last week. Did not trade for 8+ months, just hunkered down and let the storm pass. If I am not trading, I do not go to the boards. Went back to Beanie's for the first time and it was dead, thought I would look you up.

    I sold all and bought DXD and FAZ this week but sold FAZ with a $50 loss. I now only hold DXD. I am looking for the same pullback as everyone else.

    I will be around, just stopped by to say hey.
  • Hi Z,

    Todays potential earnings play-

    GMCR, V, CLF, AKAM, ORLY

    ORLY looks like a good short.

    GL
  • TenYear
    Wed. morning:
    Shanghai down 8%, FXP up 5% pre mkt. SPY down .55%, oil down 2%
    the dollar is opening higher.
  • TV107
    TV107 tomorrow is our only shot for a 1.75-2% pullback
    europe closed at our lows
    so if they go down 1%, we can go down 2% to catchup to them

    api was awful for crude number
    dollar may start moving up to 80
  • pikertrader
    pikertrader
    http://tinyurl.com/lbygme looking for a pullback and depending on how far it goes it could signal if we are in a new uptrend or still in a bear market.
  • Drainage
    Drainage
    I'm thinking DUG, SMN if the USD firms up. Generic index shorts such as SDS and DXD should do well too.
  • PussyGalore
    PussyGalore
    Several years ago, I had the honor of saying "hello" to Buzz Aldrin while dining at The Polo Lounge at The Beverly Hills Hotel.
  • TGT chart in the members area---I feel really confident this TGT short will work at the numbers I have outlined--
    http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/
  • Here’s what tenyear says about Oil and more ( GE,FXP,etc)
    Oil inventory is tomorrow morning. Inventory will be bullish like usual. But the dollar is more significant. I say short oil on a spike if you get one after the report.
    http://zstock7.com/?p=1449&dsq=13480296#comment-13476145
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