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• Sunday, August 02nd, 2009

IWM is so close to the top–
The bullet train, is about to come to 10G screeching halt!
Hope you got a seat belt on!

KGC,

DE, upper bb band says to short now, however yahoo eps site says DE might make 46–the trend is a little murky in that 60 day ago and 90 day ago period.

Can you see how if DE does mange to get to 47–it’s pretty much toast in that area?
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companies reporting this week**click here


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  • thank you for sharing this
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  • MDC aug 40 puts filled 36.3 ---3.90--see aug 2 chart for details---same details apply to TOL short
  • TOL aug 23 puts filled 2.30--doesn't look like TOL will make it to May highs, looking at yahoo eps site
  • FAS and XLF are both at their fib 38% lines
  • srains99
    I picked up some FAZ puts this morning to hedge all of my shorts. It ended up being very good but I sold when the market recovered and was down 49 points, missed that last move but picked up some QID. I now need to find a new long position. Not sure what to play. My hope ( which is a poor investment strategy) is that we sell off at the end of the day and I can get a chance to go long on something. Maybe I will sell some puts on something.
  • GENZ and AZO are my longs--AZO has a 169 and higher target price--longer term and GENZ well they crapped on earnings so GENZ could see 45
  • srains99
    Ty bro, I will look at both of those. GENZ is well above the price you say it could pull back to, so I will wait on that one.

    How does the cash for clunkers impact AZO? It seems that putting a bunch of new cars on the road could adversely impact auto part sales.
  • AZO is a cash cow--seems to be recession proof--2008-2010--eps trend is on fire!
  • srains99
    Thanks man, I will do my homework on it tonight and tomorrow. I picked up some JNPR calls.
  • That guy said to short JLL back at 33--inverted H&S---I wish I could remember his name--
    I knew yesterday JLL--is GLOBAL / WOrldwide, and headed much much higher--I'll have to do an earnings chart to see where the target price is
  • PSA earnings tomorrow--time is a news "black out" or censored by google
  • cotguy
    What is going on AIG? Up $9 or 68%.

    Investors who were short shares of American International Group before a recent 20-for-1 reverse stock split are scrambling Wednesday to buy scarce shares to cover, driving the stock up more than 50%, according to Miller Tabak analyst Peter Bookvar.
  • IYR, 5 month chart isn't relevant-( 1Q + 1 month of data) -moved to a 9 month chart 3Q's of info
  • BNI july 18th post , I said you can throw out $90--failed at the 100 day weekly 82--just like the chart said it would--
  • AZO, I counted 5 month's of candles, and this is the only time it's fallen 4 days in a row--7 in a row are rare
  • IYR sure is tempting for a short sell--and then too, so does JPM
  • FSLR i did the 151 exit--just like the chart said I should--if any members remember the FSLR I posted , and what it WILL do intraday--today
    oh man --what the non- members are missing--
  • cotguy
    Z,

    nice job
  • I keep seeing that same trading signal day after day, month after month, on stock after stock--I think it's reliable in a lot of cases.
  • AZO aug 140 calls filled 6.70, be there or be square--I see at least a 148 exit--I also see rsi 30, AZO at rsi 32
  • Tazman
  • USD has a very bullish 50 day with a target of 81--30/50 day signal
  • TenYear
    GRMN up 22% pre market
  • BKC SEPT 12.5 calls are just added---and dollar for dollar---oh happy days! 3.50 gets you 4.70
  • JACK missed-down 3% ah-might get BKC to go to 16--where I will be huge long BKC
  • DTG up 4% in AH beat st by 53 cts---I wonder if AZO goes up too!
  • CSCO aftermarket WED---that's the last big QQQQ holding to report--should be all downhill for q after that--
  • IWM uusally moves in $11 price channels, per month---47 +11 = 58
  • junior35
    IWM might be near a top,but so far sellers have been on vacation and are loving every slow step up.This thing can keep on grinding longer than a lot of us can stay solvent.Let's hope you're correct on this.Cheers.
  • IWM also moves in $10 channels 47+10 = 57, I'd like to see qqqq correct some more--maybe a CSCO miss AH--we'll see
  • RIG,FWLT,BHI report pre-market if all three exceed--OIH past 115--if today's IYR is any indicator--oih shorts are goosed
  • TenYear
    Jobs numbers are Friday.

    profit taking tomorrow or Thursday. Last week I think I said Wed close or Thursday's open would be the top and if not it wouldn't be until October.
  • PCLN august 10 DDAY i think it goes down what do u htink Zstock?
  • srains99
    Anyone shoot craps? I play poker most of the time but nothing beats craps for excitement.

    Just making idle chat as I sit here and second guess myself
  • TenYear
    short oil ahead of tomorrow's inventory might work. If we get a bounce in the dollar it will only make the trade better. I like the risk/reward here.
  • TenYear
    WFMI reports after close

    if I had a gun to my head, I'd go long. But thank goodness I don't.

    If people are not eating out then they must be cooking from home. Maybe they are eating out.
  • WFMI--up $3 ah--
  • srains99
    I have no idea what to do here. After selling my FAS calls, I am only long gold. I feel I should have another long hedge but just can not pull the trigger. I may get burned if we have that end of day runup but I am just not feeling it.
  • srains99
    I picked up some FAS calls this am to offset my short positions. I got out about an hour ago, good trade but I have no idea where we end up today. I may kick myself if the market runs up at the end of the day.
  • GENZ long at 49.4 aug 45 calls filled 4.90--I'm probably a dollar early --I'd prefer $48 entry
  • DTG earnings after hrs. i am long 17.50 PUTS it ran .60c to 17.50 in 4 months 1100% gain they have HUGE debt 93m cash 1.5 bill debt if they miss this can gap down to 12-3 area imo and that's only IF they miss
  • sounds good to me
  • BBY, going long--need some longs as a hedge against these shorts that aren't working
  • AZO at a triple bottom 148
  • CAT short stopped out, STI short stopped out
  • cotguy
    z,

    Time to buy FAZ puts?
    Any good strikes

    best,
    cg
  • FAS--i'd uuse a 67 stop loss
  • Tazman
    ZZZ...NTLS on the overnight chart....we have earnings tomorrow.....?????
  • Last couple of earnings, on paper I called it the wrong way--
  • TenYear
    IYR approaching $37..might as well wait for $39 before splashing around with SRS.
  • tenyear, good call IYR going to 39--I'm glad I waited for 39
  • TenYear
    $39-$40 area decent entry for short
  • TenYear
    Long VMC at the open. stop is LOD
  • APC announces huge discovery
  • I forgot to short DE at 45.8-with this market, maybe, i'll get a better price tomorrow--
  • APC
    Anadarko will host a conference call on Tuesday Aug. 4, at 9 a.m. Central Daylight Time (10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time) to discuss second-quarter results and the company’s outlook for the remainder of 2009.
  • UNG
    , I believe this could begin to happen in the fourth quarter of this year or first quarter of next year. The Rocky Mountain region, where our Bob Beeman Drilling subsidiary operates, also tends to be gas-prone.I think once we see gas prices move up past $5 per MCF and appear sustainable at those levels, which could happen early in 2010,
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BTU-Equivalency-Rebound-Will-twst-1619060106.html?x=0&.v=1
    this is nearly 60% up
  • TenYear
    VMC: reports after the close. It sees $54 or $40 tomorrow.

    August $50 calls are active.
  • with housing going nuts--it'd be a shame if someone were short VMC
  • Do you think DRIV is a long at 35?--it seem to be holding at 35
    I've noticed stocks in this market go right back up
  • TenYear
    GLD: I wonder if it is forming batwings on the daily

    SLV: I wonder if it is forming a right shoulder on the daily

    GLD: weekly chart looks bullish with an inverse H&S
    SLV: weekly chart looks neutral to bullish

    Daily scenerios would be accurate assuming the dollar finds a bottom soon. If the dollar doesn't, the weekly would prevail
  • XLE usually up on monday down on Tuesday--that's all I have
  • Just about every gold stock is at the upper bb band or above it--GLD too!, worth it to try a small position short
  • My short LEN at 11--should have gone long--up to 12.3
    RYL misses and then heads back higher--like WHR--missed and BRCM missed , they just head back to where they were--maybe I should go long SYNA
  • TGT i missed my own short at 44.4--down a $1.40
  • SM shorting SM ahead of earnings---they'll miss
  • cotguy
    Z,

    They beat by 2 cents bu the stock was down AH.

    Best
    cg
  • I've seen this---up on the first day of the month--then down the rest of the week
  • DE is 45.8, that's close enough to my 47 to try a small short position
  • CCL at 29.12 --i have 29.5 against me--moving the underwater aug 30 puts into the aug 32 puts--not worried about time--cause i can move the aug into sept week before expire as long as CCL is not above 30, above 30 I have to move into the aug 33 puts
  • cotguy
    Z,

    So if Im understanding correctly, you are selling your Aug 30 puts and buying the Aug 32 puts.

    Forgive my dumb question.

    Thanks,
    cg
  • Yes--I'm swapping CCL 30's for 32's, so I stay in the money--that way I never run out of time--I found a option time loop hole--lolz
  • Big battle between safely buying market at these overbought levels and dollar---that's why I'm short gold stocks--
  • AEM is an upper bb band short--use a 62 stop loss
  • TenYear
    FXI: unless there is a sharp selloff this afternoon, this is primed for $48.

    All long trades are getting scary easy.
    Raise those stops.
  • I closed my EFA shorts at a loss--EFA is just getting ridiculous
  • FCX at the weekly 200 day = 64.6, possible short sell
  • KGC opening a small short position right here at 20--last highs 20.7--are against me
  • UGA double top--short it 35.5--use the aug 39 puts--use a 36 stop loss
  • GENZ falling knife--wait for first up day then go long--at 50 now, I'm thinking 45-48
  • SM was a great short at 24--at todays 25 it's an even better short--SM reports after market today--should miss
  • BEN at 92 is 11% above the overnight 200 day--
  • AGCO--stayed away from shorting tractors, friday--thank goodness AGCO up 4%
  • KSu aug 22 filled 1.65 or so---KSU around 21's
  • OXY short at 73 or so AUG 75 puts filled 3.10, near the upper part of the red bar on the member chart
  • STI,DIA,DO,MDC,DRIV charts in the member's area--- upgrade today, to get the whole story--
  • Reza
  • jamesmarkii
    jamesmarkii
    My gut is telling me to short USO and cover at $33.00
  • tgarfield
    tgarfield
    I'm short oil, and I'm not sure if it is the right thing. I covered some USO puts friday at a decent loss but I sold 2 times as many on a 110% gain two days before.
  • Name

    CastorTroy
    USD is on the edge of a precipice once again, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts if the dollar does collapse
  • narianu1

    narianu1
    No way! I think the USD is on the edge of rally!
  • JakeGint
    JakeGint USD heading back down to $71. Maybe not right away, but it's going to get there.

    Here's the thing -- bears are right, but the shit dollar is making them wrong, by way of inflated pricing.

    Paradoxical, infuriating, but that's the deal.
  • fortune8
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