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• Monday, October 12th, 2009

OCT 13 2009

UPDATE SYNA–SYNA was as high as $22 in AH–looks like today was the low!


Todays Disqus comments and observations
FPL member chart–This second retest of the 200 day–I’d stay out
FPL expanding solar-( money out) -I might get my Below 200 day short target
GLD I might short some more gold stocks–I like my readings on my overnight charts-( the Macd’s the slow sto’s the percents, everything is in place to deliver a down overnight) -I might even take a small position in Short GLD, using 0.5% stops–The reason for the stop is NEM–NEM not at $51
HAL closed out shorts will wait till after OCT 16th earnings to get back in–either on the up move ( a short) or down move, ( buy the dip)
KGC Shorting KGC for an overnight–23.6 entry +0.20, so far–HAL overnight short worked +3%, out and get back in after earnings oct 16, SYNA–hope you’re LONG
$HUI, I have overnight short sell signals, use a 1% stop
IBM needs to break higher from this $127 resistance
JCP is frustrating. It won’t go high enough for it to stop out–It sits there
KGC I’m trying a small GLD short for overnight–and KGC short–double top 23.6
NEM I’ve been waiting for NEM to get to $51, before shorting NEM–I did that the last time NEM in the 48′s–and missed big opportunity–I could try this again at 48 and use a 48.5 stop
OIH Most of the OIH holdings are trading at 24X eps–I give OIH 135 tops this cycle–RIG is the one stock that is still undervalued by approx 8%–
thus 125 x 8% = 135–RIG keeps going higher–they all ( OIH stocks) go higher. HAL reports OCT 16th, I think they will miss. I have shorts on HAL, ( small position, with tight 2% stops)–I’d rather short HAL at $31-$32
Oil is probably headed down after oil inventory report gets released in the morning
SYNA LONG SYNA 21.05–100% i can get 22.33 the gap exit
SYNA, I think someone ask me about SYNA the other day–20.9 is where I’d start accumulating
SYNA LONG SYNA 21.11, trying for the 2 gap exits 22.33 and the 23.4
SYNA LONG SYNA 21.05–100% i can get 22.33 the gap exit
OCT 12 2009

For right now, I don’t see how HAL gets to $34, except on the back of RIG and possibly SLB.

__
This happens 5 times a year!


Just because C or JPM raises their target price to $34, doesn’t mean they are giving you correct information. Sometimes it’s their job to give you mis-information–
I very much doubt HAL gets above $30. $1.23 in earnings isn’t exactly a value company. If I give HAL a full 24.4 p/e, I can only come up with 30.01 target price.
They report OCT 16th. HAL beats the street by 10 cents, then yeah–I’ll see a $32 price.

Category: OIH sector
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  • gasoline UGA --If UGA keeps going higher next couple of days--I think that highness will hurt retail sector--It's a very fine line RTH and price of gasoline--If UGA is higher on Monday than today---It's a short-I think the market on RTH will trump UGA, thus force UGA down.
  • SWY up on earnings, KR,UNFI,PEP,WFMI up on the news
  • Nergo
    Is MCRS a Buy here??
  • MCRS Im showing low 27's as the really really safe entry, but today might be the low
  • NOK 6% loss in market share___misses street by 6%--one time charge of $1 billion--I doubt NOK retests 12
  • MCRS at the lower bb band, and NOK added to the long watchlist--MCRS really great eps history--
  • WDC down 2 days in a row--Long watchlist
  • after HAL reports, only two more wild cards left--DO and RIG--the other OIH components are over valued
  • If HAL is up tomorrow--I'll be glad--cause that means I can short NBR,BHI,NBLBJS--those are the most over valued, and the most likely to correct the fastest
  • NBR is above my 22.2 short sell target--except that HAL reports FRI--and HAL up, they are all up
  • NBL member link
    http://market.zstock7.com/?cat=45
    They really are sticking to that 24.4 X p/e in the OIH sector--NBL isn't participating in the OIH rally-
  • APA up, APC down--how confusing is that?
  • These guys get it--It's a 4 month chart--not a 3 month chart--3 month is useless--That's why you don't see me at prophet charts
    http://www.futurespros.com/energies/crude-oil?page=chart&sym=CLX9
  • I was thinking about shorting BRCM at $31yesterday__it would have worked!
  • GS beats street by a $1----
  • TenYear
    I'd like another gap higher tomorrow. I will likely play the shorts if we gap higher tomorrow.
  • Oct stock market trades are so hard for me! It doesn't trade trend reversal style ( my style) --it always trades momentum style--when NOV gets here, I'll be able to get reliable trades again!
  • GS reports in the morning--GS could go either way--IWM and SPY will probably copy GS
  • COCO 9-23 post-16.5 entry-activated this morning--I missed it--you missed it--the trade happened at light speed--
  • I finally figured out why XOM stops at 64-66 and doesn't go down to $59! It's because I calculated a $78 target price for XLE-2010
  • harveydent
    thanks Z.
    any comments about BIDU?
    very sporadic today
  • SYNA exit 21.9, opening bell--If it's not up on an up day like today, SYNA may fall even further on a down day.
  • Crude futures are currently up 1.2% to $75.00 per barrel. Weekly inventory data will be released tomorrow, due to the Columbus Day holiday this past Monday.
  • PCS is a falling knife--wait for first up day and then go long--I still have a 8.00 exit signals
  • Rose, harvey,
    ECA and JCP are both stopped out--This market is too tough to short--especially when I have a 10,400 target for Dow, thru earnings season.
  • rose2797
    Was able to get out of PCS at 7.45. Got the money ba back and little bit more. Staying on sidelines for now. Took small loss in TZA. $600 loss on ECA puts
  • rose2797
    took loss on my eca puts. sold them at 1.90
  • ECA, I think the market is ignoring my eps and revenue numbers and__ just straight out using a 18X p/e = $67, overnight chart says to wait for $66
  • rose2797
    my eca nov puts 60 down from 2.55 to 1.90. Bought PCS today, average 7.45. It is not stopping going down. Lets see what happens
  • harveydent
    JCP + ECA
    they just don't stop going up!
  • ECA is a stop out, I'm trying again at 66-67--that's on the overnight price target--I'll post the chart in the members area--
  • darrendong
    sold RIMM and splitted it up to 10 different positions.. Hope it's a good idea.
  • People that follow me, know that I'm always calling what a company will do on earnings, correctly most of the time----I try to teach the formula in my members area--
  • Here's a JNJ chart by John C, Weekly TA
    http://chart.ly/hfcht6
    $59 support
  • earnings, market movers
    10-16 FRIDAY
    BAC 8am
    GE 8
    HAL

    10-15 THURSDAY
    C 8
    GS 8
    GOOG
    IBM
    SWY

    10-14 WEDNESDAY
    ABT 8
    JPM 8am
  • CME has the same restrictions as to how high it can climb as ICE--it's those new regulations about trading the energy ETF's---So far, ICE has been punished 20% from the 120 highs--So, 20% is the punishment!--CME is probably getting the same haircut, from the new REGS
  • FSLR pennant continuation, here's the pattern--
    http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu
    112 up to 163 is 51 points, then FSLR traced back down to
    143 + 51 = 194--that's the continuation pattern target = $194
    now , go, google "FSLR target price" and then click on news, and then click on sort by date!
    That's my theory on FSLR
    or it dies again at the 160's
  • darrendong
    Yeah..I set long FSLR at 143.10
  • long GS 180 PUT and 190 CALL average 2.20 october
  • I looked over the GS earnings numbers and if it spikes up on earnings ( Thursday pre-market) short the spike!
    It might not spike--so that stupid lady with the high pay, ( dutch's gal friday) might be right, and GS is a short now! As near as I can figure, they would have to beat the street by 0.50 cents ( report at least $4.75) to get to $201 ( last years may high)
  • GS going to $210? More importantly, what are you doing with OCT strikes? Isn't that bad, because there's not any time! Nov strikes will work, just go to the $300 ones! I give --GS 50/50 on earnings could go either way--if it spikes, short the spike
  • deer
    I have been watching FSLR , CME in OPEX week since last 3 months . These two stocks can run like anything during opex week , i think FSLR is best for options players during opex .

    Z ,

    Do you have any price target for FSLR during opex ??

    thanks
  • TenYear
    SYNA: I like it at $18.40, Sell it at $24 or today's gap

    INTC: gap fill at $17 would wreak havoc on the market tomorrow!

    C: earnings Thursday BMO, trending up
  • SYNA, downgraded by jefferies--the king of mis -information! This might be the first day of a falling knife, in which case buy on the first up day--but $18.4? That's the March low--The dow was at 6400 in March. The dow is much higher today! So, I figure SYNA low is much higher!
  • Here's why I don't post all of my trades--SHORT FPL--now I have to go into 3 minutes of typing to explain -That #1, here's where my time begins to erode--at #1 reason--I don't think FPL's 200 day is the long support--#2, I can use a 0.5% stop loss, just above the 200 day--I can enter the stop loss 53.2 GTC and I'm only trying to pick up 52.6--If FPL gaps down tomorrow that's even better
  • LONG SYNA 21.05--100% i can get 22.33 the gap exit
  • $HUI, I have overnight short sell signals, use a 1% stop
  • SYNA, I think someone ask me about SYNA the other day--20.9 is where I'd start accumulating or 7% lower
  • FPL member chart--This second retest of the 200 day--I'd stay out
  • harveydent
    JCP refuses to go down!
    good news came out for them today with Liz Claiborn
    still a good short?
  • Name
    Good question..I am amazed how the retail stocks have held up !
  • JCP is frustrating. It won't go high enough for it to stop out--It sits there
  • nergo
    Interesting Quote and Joke Question. I wonder if this was true:

    "Bernie Madoff got into a shoving match in prison with another senior, news reports say Madoff took him down. What was the brawl about? The stock market." - HT

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