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IYR
Author:
• Saturday, December 12th, 2009

DECEMBER 15th UPDATE
Sometimes I’m looking at a chart, and I say to myself, of course, that’s where I should have gone long that stock. 5 days ago was the low, I missed it.
I call that reading history. If you read too much history in the stock market, it will affect your next trading decision. So I, try to stop myself from looking at things I missed.
I just take a few notes like, did the lower bb band signal the long? DID RSI 30 signal the long?
DId the slow sto cross-over signal the long?
Then I move on, because that trade is history.
If in 5 days, that stock repeats it’s low, it’s no longer history, it’s a “situation”. I have to make a decision on it, right away.

DECEMBER 14th UPDATE
I’m moving my comments ( ESPECIALLY, those related to my entry and exit prices) into my membership site. I’ll do this one step at a time, in order for the members to get used to the change.


Pending orders page ( free) posted in the members only area.
I have a few positions w/ GTC orders, that haven’t
executed yet.
I could sell THAT! for $15 a day.
Now I get it! That’s why people charge $295 a month for their stock picks.
$15 X 5 = $75 / week
$75 X 4 weeks = $295

Click here for trading record
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I should have shorted IYR at $45.77. I certainly told everyone to go long SRS that day.
and then get out, and try shorting again.
This is the try shorting again, part of that last trade.
I have this theory about stock tops.
Once the market tests the top, it doesn’t go and test the top again, it goes off into the next few sessions, to find the new low.
I’m invoking this rule, at this particular time.
Stick around for awhile, to find out if I get this right!
Who know’s?
I’m short SPG 1.25X position, are you?

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Category: IYR Sector
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  • HD can't go up, unless the DOW is going up, look at that ( I'm losing on this short) run now!
  • TenYear
    having second thoughts. OIH had a bounce.
  • TenYear
    long XOM by the close
  • I'm in 68.5, 1/4 position, added to 69.2 entry. I'm looking for a V recovery! 72 gap test exit
  • TenYear
    S&P 3 day batwings...thats scary

    We normally go higher the day after Fed (tomorrow)

    but in order to rally next week, we might have to fall tomorrow.

    mkt making me crazy
  • The news on Monday forecast, for the Fed, was, their goal was to say "Nothing". Nothing = uncertainty = down. What do you think!
  • TenYear
    feels more like continued range bound action through the end of the year.

    who knows for sure.
  • I'd like to see the DOW around 10,000, beginning of JAN earnings season..Then I'll know for sure, to go long 66% / have a positive bias, of all stocks on their earnings report.
    If I were a GS employee, I'd be begging the bosses, " Can you set up this scenario for me, before Jan earnings season?"
  • GILD, product delay, down 5%
  • nergo
    GILD took a hit last two days. Must be a Buy soon. Right, Zee.
  • I think that kind of news, sets up a 2% channel at the bottom, that lasts for a week or so. Maybe GILD gets 42-43 for awhile. in and out type trade. 41.88 is the 200 day weekly, that looks like the right stop loss.
  • nergo
    GILD took a hit last two days. Must be a Buy soon. Right, Zee.
  • Looks like OSIP is down too! I don't see an entry price yet. might be right now. or.... http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-859
  • BPT It doesn’t have the eps to get to last year’s 90 high. It doesn’t have anywhere close to the EPS to get to the 90 high–this is a...... http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-855
  • I'm inventing a new type of strangle. Instead of a strangle play on 1 stock, I'd use, LONG XOM, Short BPT, I wonder how that would work out as a 2 stock strangle play?
  • MTH long worked. YAY
  • TenYear
    ERTS raised to a 'buy' from 'hold' at Needham ( i think thats the right analyst). Anyways, they just got upgraded
  • GLD, history, I was waiting for a 10% pullback, I only got 9.5%, therefore no position.
  • If you are looking at OIH, the trade is history to me. I noted 5 days ago, that HAL was a buy at RSI 30, and a OIH long might work.
    EBIX the bottom was RSI 30, so next low, (Weeks out) it won't be RSI 30, it'll be some other RSI, most likely.
  • ADBE, I calculated that wrong, it's up on earnings
  • My VXX long is so far under water -$2, that it's really a..http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-852
  • My EBIX long GTC went thru, I'm going to sell half +20%
  • TenYear
    selling DIG holding, preparing for DUG.

    I have resistance on DIG at $34.80 ish

    holding BAC still from yesterday
  • Hey Z!

    I didn't get UPL'ed this time. I bought UPL 46.71.

    Finally got my revenge.

    http://fade-me.blogspot.com/2009/12/more.html#comment-25516418
  • I knew someone, would have to catch that, one of these days. YAY, I GOT NEXT! btw, UPL has an unlimited High, due to big oil buying up nat gas companies, due to copenhagen, or EPA. Which means, it's not safe to short nat gas stocks again.
  • ADBE went down 5% then up 3%, and then the last trade in AH ended up, no change from the closing price.
  • old_sparky
    EBIX-RSI 30. Down 5 out of the last six days. Falling knife.Looking for an up day.
  • EBIX, it looks like the falling knife is over. I'd try a 1/4 LONG NOW. I think you can get a $49 exit, eventually.
  • EBIX eps CNN
    I'm interested in the 90 days ago EPS FY 2009 FY 2010, and up to 7 days ago.
    http://money.cnn.com/quote/estimates/estimates.html?symb=EBIX
    makes a lot more sense than what YAHOO idiots have---BIG TYPO mistake.
    EBIX 200 day is $40, now way does EBIX test that. imo. I'd have to say 43.5 was the low
    EBIX has to retest $49, pretty soon.
  • Reza
  • TenYear
    long BAC
  • I’ll add PEP to my pending orders page, entry is.. http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-845 pending orders page might turn into 35 wins one loss next 36 trades
  • ADBE reports AH today, I think it will... http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-840
  • Reza
  • UPS is at a double top 59.... the most likely short sell price is http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3647&cpage=1#comment-839
  • I’m posting my entry and exit prices at ...subscription site, login, for awhile. Not in DISQUS or Twitter anymore.
  • Reza
    Ok, I saw it.
  • Reza
    Z, What dows Fed Fut mean. U mentioned Fed Fut up 54% in June
  • Fed fund futures, I see it mentioned every so often, when I google "FOMC meeting" and then click on the google NEWS link in the google NAV bar. When the percentage becomes 80%, that's when interest rates will jump.
  • FXE on the watchlist
  • Hi Z,

    waiting for 30-30.50 on HD to short. what do you think?
  • I sure wouldn't want to be long HD at these prices
  • No........... I said short at 30.00-30.50 :-)
  • Reza
    I think HD up because Obama went to HD today
  • I saw that! LOW broke down today, ahead of my short sell target price, so HD is probably close to having a first down day. That's what I should have done, is wait for the first down day, then go short.
  • TenYear
    ADBE reports after market close. They are bidding it up big today.
  • TenYear
    DRYS: I said buy near $6 last week. good bounce today. $6.98 is my target near term as long as markets cooperate.

    ERIC: sheesh I was early on the call but in today. stop is now $9.09 This stock doesn't move much.

    DIG: I wonder if oil goes up another day and DIG gets to $35 ish

    IMGG: $1 and 0.80 cents are the supports.

    NXTM: running good with a recent breakout. I've followed this company since their IPO. Good company making dialysis units.

    FWLT: My long signals were right Friday

    ERTS: Cramer pumped this last night
  • darrendong
    I saw Tenyear C's target Target: $3.20-$3.10 area and Z says 3.4 ...i bought at 3.62 just now, is it wrong? 200ma 3.62, maybe some upside from here、？
  • TenYear
    $3.25 gap, it could fill before another climb.

    C is a great long term play. Trading might be difficult near term because of the dilution, government, and uncertainty.
  • darrendong
    I am afraid it will go lower..
  • C, that's a $6-$12 stock someday
  • Nergo
    Made a litttle profit by covering your SPG short recommendation at the open Monday. Shorted IYR at the close. Shorted HD too.

    As always, thanks agan Zee, for all your work!!!! You are the Heisman winner of all stock traders.
  • FOMC likely to keep rates at 0%, that should hurt gold stocks.
    BBY reports pre-market, that could go either way.
    BBY down, look for DIA down 1%
  • I'm moving my comments ( those related to my entry and exit prices) into my membership site. I'll do this one step at a time, in order for the members to get used to the change.
  • Nergo
    As my Momma used to say, "I told you so" [told ya months ago] : )

    I hope TenYear is a member or you have granted him one of those "privileged, ex-officio, chartered memberships" for the select few because of his expertise and input.
  • Reza
    WFC, paying back $25b A/H
  • Reza
    Z, U got your 7.77 on SRS
  • I added a 2.5X position on a related position.
  • $6 billion in window package
    http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/gapublic/american_recovery_reinvestment_act_home
    HD should get about $1 billion, looks like Yahoo already added it in--
  • HD is getting that Obama window's upgrade tax incentive money, so Is LOW, I think it's a small amount, I'll have to look up the actual amount. Obviously Yahoo analysts haven't added that new income in, yet--
  • fstrtrdr
    EBIX - wha'sup w/ dat?
  • C upper bb band 4.25 - 20% dilution = 3.40 LONG
  • HD, same store sales Tuesday pre-market, HD DOWN
  • where can I find the calendar for same store sales? TIA
  • It's a weekly Tuesday event, google " same store sales" pre-market, and it will tell you which ones beat and which ones were in line and which ones missed
  • Ok, thank you :-)
  • fstrtrdr
    You adding to HD & SPG shorts here?
  • Added a full position HD short sell 29.0--I have 29.3 against me--last years revenue high, and based on revenue HD can get to 29.3
    SPG, I'm looking at a $74.5 exit, I can get this exit, hopefully it's this week.
  • TenYear
    Looking like oil and gold will bounce here with a general market breakout. This breakout will fail with a big selloff?

    tough call here. random thoughts.
  • IYT broke out, to the upside mainly airlines and FDX, KSU 30.8 going to $32, eps raised 9%, from 90 days ago.
  • XOM going greener, buys XTO,
  • Reza
    Z, you went long on SPG. I thought you wentt short last Friday
  • I added another 1/2 position ( short sell) to the existing short--see history, -5000 short, then again -5000 short
  • Reza
    I see it now, I thought you went long
  • XOM, Taking a 1/4 position LONG 69's
  • TenYear
    ERIC: never made it to rsi 30,,,use 9.38 as the stop if you think it is turning.
  • TenYear
    C: officially can survive on its own without the gov't. C is another one to put in the IRA for the long haul.
  • C 20% or so dilution of shares.
  • TenYear
    Target: $3.20-$3.10 area
  • darrendong
    just saw FSLR went above $138, added 200 shares..hope i am right..
  • TenYear
    COCO: nice call
  • indeedy!
  • dow futures +60, dubai news again. Monday up, Tuesday down pattern.
  • Hey Z!

    After the more post, this is a less post - http://fade-me.blogspot.com/2009/12/less.html

    ACH, CYH, M, RVBD

    What do you think?

    Here's a trick. Hold your arms straight out with all fingers extended. Now close the bottom 4 fingers.

    What do you get?
  • My charting system, doesn't have any clues about ACH,CYH,M--except that 2 - 3 days ago, they were Hot longs at the lower bb band.
  • You are suppose to do the hand trick and let me know the results.
  • I get thumbs up!
  • there you go - LOL
  • FPL, overnight chart says to short now, or at 57.8 --a more detailed report is available in the members section.
  • Trading recommendations past 27 days, 33 wins, 1 loss, 1 break-even.
  • DECK makes me sick, look at that! V recovery, then another V recovery, it's a W--I need to start a W, watchlist w/ stocks about to start their W
  • Off Topic, I don't think the US can afford to have GS. It will sink the Dow 5000 to 7000 one day.
  • Reza
    What does that mean?
  • I get the feeling GS is really dis-liked in this country. ( because of, Employee compensation schemes, that no longer deliver to the general well-being)
  • harveydent
    how do i roll over my december options into january - scottrade?

    thanks
  • Sell the December strikes this week, try to get the best price, and then take that balance, and buy Deep in the money ( delta 85 or greater) JAN strikes.
  • harveydent
    many thanks
  • jting3305
    I HOPE, I WISH, BUT THERE IS CHALLENGE
    BETTER WISH
  • danny42nd
    Is santa rally will start next week?
  • I don't know when the xmas rally starts, what are other people saying? I only know I have a 12,800 target for late 2010
  • danny42nd
    Hello zstock or ten year
    what do you think of pot and gs? pot down almost 4% after hit new high last thrusday.
    gs appear to break out higher but did not at the closing.
    thanks in advance
  • GS 160-170 price channel, could stay in that for 3 weeks. Powerful looking BB bands--Revenues are flat--keeps it from going above $200--
    P/E is 8.5--that's a number you can trust--buy at p/e 8 or 9
  • POT, fortune8, kept saying POT going above $110, back at $90-100
    here's his link
    http://fade-me.blogspot.com/
    don't open at work, or with the boss standing behind you!
  • TenYear
    MGM Citycenter is truly spectacular. I little financial trouble near term, but long term Citycenter is going to dominate the Vegas strip.
    Buy MGM in the IRA. In 15 years, I think this stock will not disappoint anyone.
  • Hi Z,

    BBY reports on Tue BMO. I will be bearish if it goes to 46, which is a resistance area. Current daily and weekly RSI is at 62 and if it goes to 46, the daily RSI will be at 70's (overbought). I am also bearish because most people are bullish on it. So my plan is to short at 46 with an exit target of 43, which is the 20 EMA on the daily chart.

    Let me know what you think :-)
  • Reza
    Z, whatever others say, you are the best. Especially, UNG, you are the only one that I know made money on UNG
  • Pending orders page ( free) posted in the members only area.
    I could sell THAT! for $15 a day.
    Now I get it! That's why people charge $295 a month for their stock picks.
    $15 X 5 = $75 / week
    $75 X 4 weeks = $295
  • Here's an HP long by fortune8--
    He put up plenty of info, enough info in fact, that anyone can understand this trade.
    http://fade-me.blogspot.com/2009/12/more.html
    I tried finding some possible entry and exit prices and posted those over there.
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