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• Thursday, December 24th, 2009

IYR

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  • New post SNDK ( free site) http://zstock7.com/?p=2132
  • rose2797
    Z, can you look at possible buys on TLT or TMF (30year bonds)
  • Wow an easy one, TLT / TMF , is about a strong a falling knife as you can get---Strong is good, because the first up day, that's the bottom. GO LONG
    AGG is in trouble too!
  • Reza
  • TenYear
    I saw it today, and I saw LVS. I thought LVS looked better. Under $9 again for sure if this market pulls back like everyone says it is going to do.

    I think this is just a good week to watch unless you are able to fade big moves intraday. IMO.
  • Hi TT,
    I'm waiting for airline stocks to get less volatile, then going long MGM again. 8.5 is the 200 day, MGM--tenyear will probably say "MGM will never get that low!" Anyway, I'm stuck here like you, waiting on Tenyear's, go now!
  • Reza
  • Reza
    Z, are these part of IYR
  • Newsletter going out at 2:17 EST. I hope it gets there! I discuss an IYR holding.
  • Reza
    Newsletter received.

    Thanks
  • lolz!
  • Here's my theory, the airline news, spooked the hotel stocks--
  • BX 13.15 LONG starter position 7% or whatever-- http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3758&cpage=1#comment-947
  • TenYear
    How many times can LVS bounce off $15? LOL.
  • The same amount of bounces as BX off 13.15, and ENER off 10.50--lolz
  • BXP,PSA are down, inverse falling knife rule, The end is near for IYR
  • cotguy
    Z,

    best to go long SRS or short URE?

    best
    c
  • I'm looking at individual components of IYR, and shorting those stocks.
  • CHA longs, +35%, closing out. I'd rather close out half, except I don't have a half, so closing out all.
  • CME, breaking out, new 5 month high, ICE too!
  • Retail numbers out today, +1% is good, (-1%) is neutral or bad. actual is +1% or +3.6%
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703991304574622362656691796.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews
  • after 2 weeks of waiting, I finally have VNO at 73, short IYR. What's against me, is an inverse falling knife. Rule on that is... Wait for the first down day and then short after that.
  • STT, first down day, shorting tomorrow, if it's up.
  • TenYear
    VNO: above $73. $77 is resistance....One thing about IYR it likes to hover above the upper BBs a few days on a break out.

    We likely sell off the rest of the week (historically). It will be interesting to see what Goldman does in January.
  • xyz1
    Ten Year,

    Why USO is up 2% --Oil is up only 1%, is there any other component need to consider for USO?
  • TenYear
    USO: invests in all types of oil and at times natural gas as well. They also utilize swaps, options, futures. USO does not track the spot price of only light sweet crude.
  • Reza
    Z, should we bail out of C, when even or hold onto it.
  • They paid back the TARP, I think. Upper bb band is 3.99 exit
  • TenYear
    GE: $14.55 would be a nice entry
  • Reza
    Tenyear, got some ERX based on retail sales. Any thoughs about exit
  • TenYear
    ERX is the 3x leveraged energy ETF. Not for me today.
  • Reza
    will get some
  • TenYear
    Happy safe Holidays to everyone.

    Again, everyone is looking for a pullback in the market. I'm open to it, but remain skeptical. The path of least resistance remains higher until proven otherwise.
  • Reza
    Agree.
  • Reza
    Z, I think SRS wants to go $6. According to Bulloski, he thinks a reverse split is on its way. He mentioned a four year cycle about real estate on his blog.
  • SNDK, inverse falling knife, I’m using the “inverse” falling knife rule, wait___ http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3758&cpage=1#comment-943
  • It is near the Christmas break of the school year. The students have
    turned in all their work and there is really nothing more to do. All the
    children are restless and the teacher decides to have an early
    dismissal.

    Teacher: "Whoever answers the questions I ask, first and correctly can
    leave early today."

    Little Johnny says to himself "Good, I want to get outta here. I'm smart
    and will answer the question."

    Teacher: "Who said 'Four Score and Seven Years Ago'?"

    Before Johnny can open his mouth, Susie says, "Abraham Lincoln."

    Teacher: "That's right Susie, you can go home."

    Johnny is mad that Susie answered the question first.

    Teacher: "Who said 'I Have a Dream'?"

    Before Johnny can open his mouth, Mary says, "Martin Luther King."

    Teacher: "That's right Mary, you can go."

    Johnny is even madder than before.

    Teacher: "Who said 'Ask not, what your country can do for you'?"

    Before Johnny can open his mouth, Nancy says, "John F. Kennedy."

    Teacher: "That's right Nancy, you may also leave."

    Johnny is boiling mad that he has not been able to answer to any of the
    questions.

    When the teacher turns her back Johnny says, "I wish these bitches would
    keep their mouths shut!"

    The teacher turns around: "NOW WHO SAID THAT?"

    Johnny: "TIGER WOODS. CAN I GO NOW?"
  • How to WIN trading QID, click here ( members only) http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3758
  • Until the avalanche
  • I think the weekend news, Long delays, may have hurt airline stocks--I'd be surprised if they were up on Monday.
  • From what I've been reading, the crackdown is only on international flights.
  • There's a big problem with violence in Amsterdam. I don't know why.
  • They ran out of hookers and pot!
  • This post will be my 4,000th... as I think back... I wonder what in the hell I could have had to say 3,999 other times...
  • They never tell you how many homeless people died from the cold last nite___
  • Inside us there is a permanent struggle between good and bad,between hell and heaven,everyone is following a dream but not all dreams come true,sometimes the dream comes to a dramatic end.
  • I remember saying about a month ago, VIX is headed to 19, wait till then to go long VIX
  • I'm worried about the VIX.--GS returns from vacation Jan 4 and I think they tank the market 5% or more in 5 days. We'll see.
    If they have huge capital gains, they'll want to start selling Dec 30-31, and keep on selling right into JAN 4-8, who knows?
  • rose2797
    I bought GILD at 42.90 on thursday. Also, bought PTRY at 12.90. Looking to buy SWHC, if possible aroung 3.20. Holding COCO and CSTR.
  • I have a theory about gasoline refineries--I think you can use UGA, to help determine long and long exit, plus, refining capacity has bottomed, which means instead of 20% standing idle, The consumer may raise it to 18% standing idle, and so on.
  • PTRY, their tax doubled, 200 day is 17. They have the revenue to approach 17's, time line, less than a year.
  • old_sparky
    Z,GILD is showing a double bottom with RSI at 31. Maybe buying this here with a tight stop under the November lows at around 42 25. Ugly chart, though. If the market looks weak on Monday I won't try this. Just my $.02.
  • Reza
    Z, If Tiger Woods come back what will happen to us

    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/12/doug_kasss_20_s.html
  • #6, that's a real possibility. There will at least be some saber rattling!
  • Started looking at a new time frame, added more Mason numbers--looks very accurate.
    Nailed NEM , low, Nailed CHL low, missed on SPG top 2.5%

    I'll have to back test this thru earnings season, to see how well it predicts.
  • Nergo
    New time Frame? ..... Back test through earnings? ... Zee, you sound a little like Winace. : )
    This must be something you are reserving for the Member's Only site.

    I am glad I am a member .... I been a member for over a year now. Looking forward to a Great year of trading in 2010.
  • Get ready to trade donuts and pancakes!
  • Nergo
    Donuts and pancakes???? ....What the heck....!?!?!?!?!?!? Zee, You are acting like this and its not even New Year's Eve. : )
  • The NEW signal works to within 72 hours, so the trick is to get it working to within
    (market open)
  • off topic, Obama midnight bill-(w/ no advertising) $1.5B for the homeless.
  • off topic, Healthcare debate. They should have taxed corn syrup and MCD french fries to help defray medical costs. Frito lay too, only in the case of Frito lay, it should be Double the other's--
    That right there brings down health care costs 35%
  • Merry X-mas everybody!
    CHL chart, entry and exits are... http://market.zstock7.com/?p=3745
  • SRS , rsi 30.59
  • After you click on the link in the IYR comment below, Don't you owe it to yourself, to join my membership site, and learn the real fundamentals to trading in any type of market!
  • Here's the DEC 11-12 IYR chart, read the brown box part, that's what was against me, DEC 11-12.
    It's no longer against me.
    http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/iyr-12-11aa.jpg
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