S and p 500 Q1 earnings update

April 23rd, 2014, superstar stock trader.
Out of my sample group of 23 stocks reporting, past 4 days—- mostly yester year’s market movers, 2 to 1 are gapping up on earnings.
hmmm, 60% are gapping up on earnings. that’s the trend. if that stays in tact, look for 1950 spx by may 10, imo
Next couple of days, one of the major houses or analysts will confirm my analysis…i think i managed to get in front of them, this time.
i say 1950, they might say 1968, short term target, probably by the middle of May.
I’m assuming this quarter is the same beat the street as every other quarter, when earnings expectations have been lowered to the bone—
3%….beat the street by an average of 3%.
add that 3% to S and P’s last high, and i get a short term target of 1950

Sell in May

this late april rally helps to set up may8-11, sell, then walk away
VIX 12.9 flashed today, possible ultimate go short signal.
an ultimatum to the bulls, beat this or else
stock buybacks, hide 35% of the no real growth, so if you based price on REAL eps growth, every stock is 35% too high.
example, anything over 135 on IBM is artificial—artificial being the opposite of real.
stock buybacks started in 2009, and have been accelerating, as near as i can tell.


nat gas stocks have the russia episode fully priced in, imo
dvn 4-21

April earnings

my best guess is 60-65% of all that reports next 2 weeks, gaps down…i’ll be tracking that, this week.
and update this, as soon as i see a clear trend
earnings 4-21


the reason, i’m short the market, is i’m gambling that next weeks, earnings week is going to be an overall disappointment.
isn’t it about, every 1 in 5 days or so,that the russian news, move the market down, 21 to 42 points
XOM short now!
if you get stopped out, it’s because its tough to add in those massive stock buybacks into the top accurately…they add 2 to 5% to the top, per quarter sometimes

April Matrix

Trading April , is like a waterfall. lower highs, lower lows.
IWM 109, QQQ 83, huge support signals at those prices.