IBM

IBM
IBM 10-21
IBM has the negative rsi signal—currently under 20, so throw out V recovery…wait for 3 day in a row, low test. down day, followed by an up day, followed by a down day—go long that day.

RTI

RTI titanium
RTI 10-17

FSLR

FSLR
fslr 10-14

Nov. rally

market will be up NOV 4th midterm elections—there is very little interest in them, so republicans will gain
plus good to xlnt earnings will have been assimilated—there might be some easing in the EU….and China
all good ingredients for it to be a good Nov. rally..
plus beaten up XLE stocks will have had time to recuperate from their recent beating, and stage some sort of rally…

Oil Price War.

On October 1st, Saudi Aramco, the state-run oil producer of the world’s biggest exporter, cut prices for all its exports, reducing prices for Asia to the lowest level since 2008.
Now, flash back to the mid-1980s,
At the time, Saudi authorities were attempting to straighten out several recalcitrant OPEC members who were selling volume in excess of their monthly quotas. Saudi Arabia has traditionally served as “the balancer” in the cartel, offsetting actions by other members in order to maintain OPEC policy.
Today, the Saudis are cutting prices for a different reason.
A further decline in crude oil prices would make some production in the U.S. unprofitable, preserving Saudi exports at the expense of American shale operations.
-=-
the problem with US shale oil, none of our dam refineries can use the stuff, unless they do some major re-tooling….
-=-
the saudi’s want the US to retool our refineries, and stop dumping our shale oil in their back yard…pure and simple! or else—we get another 9-11 esque picture.
gasoline set to fall another 10% by x-mas—this is a serious price war
-=-
bottom line, gasoline prices are in a free fall, until x-mas, and if the saudi’s don’t cut production, at the nov opec meeting, gasoline will continue to free fall….
cheap oil = strong dollar = gold under $1,000
OR—-
The saudi’s will do the US bidding, and cut by $1 trillion dollars, their CRUDE OIL output at the nov 27th opec meeting….ok, we’ll see
-=-
AT THE CRUX of the price war
Crudes vary considerably in terms of density, acidity, type of hydrocarbon molecules they contain, and presence of impurities such as sulfur and heavy metals…
Refiners are very fussy about the quality of crude oil that they process. Most refineries handle a range of crudes by blending them to ensure the average quality stays close to target. Oil of the wrong density makes it impossible to maximize the efficiency of the refinery’s distillation tower and other units.
U.S. refiners have shown a strong preference for a medium blend. The problem for U.S. refiners is that almost all (96%) the extra oil (1.8M BPD) being produced as a result of the shale boom is much lighter than they would like. (or useless, unless they do a Major Retool)
in 6 month’s US production of Shale oil, will be more than the refiners can handle, and the US will have to export it…
read more about refining

VIX above 21….

you have across all sectors, stocks under rsi 25—all types, big caps, little caps, growth, value—
and not one major index under rsi 30, i’ve seen this a lot in the past—-this says to me—more down days coming…—this is a rush to the exits!
If VIX reaches 25 this month, then retreats, then reaches 25 again , next month, then the big one hits approx…8 month’s later….using a 2007 analogy
-=-
XLE do not try to knife catch–the US is in a price war with OPEC and within OPEC there’s a price war…even though, they all say, there is no price war.

Category: Uncategorized  Comments off